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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.