Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
